RDY wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 10:48 am
I suspect one of the problems from their side of things is that even if it works really well, they operate on a very low cost, high selling price model, with likely very low cost of product development. The shaft drive will necessarily be high cost, and high development cost, meaning that price would probably need to be stratospheric. They'd also have to overcome a very sceptical market, unlike the OSPW & ceramic bearing snake oil that a big chunk of the market believes in. Would it ever be worth it for them? I suspect they regret undertaking the project, and particularly the investment. The product is not a good fit at all for them IMO.
Those are all very good points, and that would be even assuming that the product works and is faster than regular drivetrains. And given how little news there have been in recent years, I'm very skeptical of that. A normal transmission with a chain is already exceptionally efficient, especially if you are on one of the fast setups (i.e. Dura Ace chain, immersion wax, etc.). Probably their tests where the system has 50% less drag are extremely optimistic, and have some unrealistic optimizations (like no seals on the bearings) that wouldn't carry over under normal conditions. It would also have to work well at high torques, and it should be very robust in a lot of difficult situations like shifting under load, riding over rough terrain, or both at the same time.
Then there is also the issue of frame compatibility. First you would need at least one manufacturer to make a version of their aero bike compatible with the sytem, and that's very expensive and a deal breaker unless it is expected to sell really well. Of course getting custom frame builders on board would be easier, but if the whole point is to go after marginal gains, you really need compatibility with the fastest aero bikes out there.
There is also the issue of getting UCI approval to use it on races, but that probably wouldn't be too much of an problem (maybe they would be concerned with the exposed teeth, but they could even be covered if necessary). It's still just a (potentially more efficient) transmission, it doesn't fundamentally change how the bike works and it doesn't make riders look weird.