Geopolitics and frame manufacturing....

Questions about bike hire abroad and everything light bike related. No off-topic chat please

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Campyforever
Posts: 106
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2022 1:32 pm

by Campyforever

We have a shooting war between Russia and the West- but WW continues and people still are concerned abourt grams-

The purpose of this question. is not "do bikes matter during wartime" but are there bikes to worry about...

Mocs123
Posts: 826
Joined: Tue May 11, 2021 9:19 pm

by Mocs123

The difference may be that China may not be as inept as Russia seems to be currently. Never the less if China were to invade Tiawan, the west might get involved and that might include sanctions on Chineese goods. Of course a high percentage of consumer goods including bicylces and bicycle components are made in either China or Tiawan. Other than oil and wheat, Russia (or Ukraine) doesn't have a ton of exports that I am aware of.
2015 Wilier Zero.7 Rim - 6.37kg
2020 Trek Emonda SLR-7 Disc - 6.86kg
2023 Specialized SL7 - 7.18kg

by Weenie


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Andrew69
Posts: 593
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2009 10:52 am
Location: ɹǝpunuʍop

by Andrew69

Mocs123 wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2023 9:18 pm
The difference may be that China may not be as inept as Russia seems to be currently.
Inept? Probably not
Corrupt? Every bit as much as the Russians

As far as the original question goes, living in Australia my concern in not being able to order the new Propel I have my eye on would pale into insignificance at the thought the whole region going to hell in a handbasket

cheapvega
Posts: 388
Joined: Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:12 pm

by cheapvega

Andrew69 wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 7:51 am
Mocs123 wrote:
Tue Jan 03, 2023 9:18 pm
The difference may be that China may not be as inept as Russia seems to be currently.
Inept? Probably not
Corrupt? Every bit as much as the Russians

As far as the original question goes, living in Australia my concern in not being able to order the new Propel I have my eye on would pale into insignificance at the thought the whole region going to hell in a handbasket
Yea, honestly a stupid question built on a shaky premise. China invading Taiwan would be WW3. Nobody would be getting any bikes any time soon just by the simple fact that production and shipping out of the region would probably grind to a halt.

Sock3t
Posts: 448
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:20 am

by Sock3t

If you tell your kid lots of times not to do something or they will be reprimanded or lose some sort of toy...It works. Up until you actually have to do it. Then you've lost all power because you've done the thing you threatened and you can't go back, typically. Say it's something terrible like throw away a toy. Once the toy is gone, there's no going back at all.

Russia did this with Ukraine and Crimea/Georgia. They threatened a ton but when it came to follow through of doing the thing, they're failing terribly. They drank their own Koolaide and thought they could steamroll Ukraine.

China isn't stupid - they know about TSMC and where the world's chip production comes from; those foundries in Taiwan are critical to all countries, not just the US. NATO would immediately be involved if China tried to take control because of this. China just threatens and postures a ton just like Russia used to.

Lina
Posts: 1060
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:09 pm

by Lina

Sock3t wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 3:27 pm
If you tell your kid lots of times not to do something or they will be reprimanded or lose some sort of toy...It works. Up until you actually have to do it. Then you've lost all power because you've done the thing you threatened and you can't go back, typically. Say it's something terrible like throw away a toy. Once the toy is gone, there's no going back at all.

Russia did this with Ukraine and Crimea/Georgia. They threatened a ton but when it came to follow through of doing the thing, they're failing terribly. They drank their own Koolaide and thought they could steamroll Ukraine.

China isn't stupid - they know about TSMC and where the world's chip production comes from; those foundries in Taiwan are critical to all countries, not just the US. NATO would immediately be involved if China tried to take control because of this. China just threatens and postures a ton just like Russia used to.
Except when you carry thought with your threat and throw away a toy they know that you'll do it. And sure, you can't throw away the same toy twice but you can throw away some other toy that you can use as a threat next. You lose all leverage by not carrying out your threats. Then everyone knows your threats are not worth anything. Don't make promises you're not prepared to keep, and also don't make threats you're not willing to see through.

Russia has been threatening with Crimea, Georgia, and Ukraine. And they've followed through with their threats. There's no reason to suspect that Russia won't attack someone if they've been posturing in that way for years. Russia basically steamrolled Crimea. And the punishment for them was what exactly from the west? A couple mostly powerless sanctions yet Europe kept buying Russian energy and in fact didn't still see anything wrong with depending on them for energy. Nord Stream 2 pipeline building started AFTER Russia had already annexed Crimea and while they were openly backing separatists in Eastern Ukraine. Europe threatened Russia that they shouldn't bully Ukraine or else and once they annex Crimea what's the response from Europe? Few useless sanctions and more dependance on Russian energy. That was basically an all out win for Russia. Based on past examples Russia didn't expect the response from Europe and US to be this vast to their attempt to annex all of Ukraine. And without Europe and US helping Ukraine this much this war would be going in a lot different way than it currently is. It'd also be going a lot different if the funds to upkeep and modernize the Russian army actually went for what they were meant for and not to yachts and villas of the generals. And unless Russia is fully stopped here, punished for it properly, and Ukraine gets back at least their 2014 borders, preferably even Crimea then Russia will try again in a decade. If they're allowed to annex Ukraine and get away with minor bruises they'll lick their wounds for a while and pick the next country. The goal is to restore the Empire.

China is probably better off posturing and bullying without actually invading. They can buy the politicians and use propaganda as tools to make Taiwan more friendly towards them. And potentially in future at some point annex them politically. If they wanted to they could easily steamroll Taiwan today unless there was an instant and massive help from someone else (US). But the global response for that invasion would probably hurt China more than they'd gain from the annexation.

RDY
Posts: 2354
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:31 pm

by RDY

No they couldn't "steamroll Taiwan". That's the point. The conflict would be significantly less asymmetric than the Ukraine / Russia conflict was early on. It would necessarily be protracted with massive losses.

Any window to even try - which they won't - is anyway rapidly closing due to TW's rapidly expanding medium and long range strike capability. Any kind of head-on conflict, let alone an attempted invasion, is not something the Chinese side will even want to think about by 2025.

Sock3t
Posts: 448
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:20 am

by Sock3t

Taiwan has several NATO fleets hanging out over there and they've equipped the Taiwanese with American aircraft.

maxim809
Administrator
Posts: 853
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:28 am

by maxim809

When all the toys have been thrown, does the household go nuclear?

ivonenand
Posts: 36
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2014 1:39 pm

by ivonenand

Well, few people believed that Russia would actually invade Ukraine, yet it happened. So we cannot rule out China invading Taiwan completely; afterall, China is building up a vast army for a reason. It may be just for intimidation, but it could be that they will actually use it.

Still, I do agree with the points above about China not being stupid. If the Taiwaneese resist the occupation/invasion, which I'm pretty sure they will, Taiwan will be left in ruins, including all of it's factories. I doubt that their artilery/rockets are precise enough to hit everything, except TSMC. The chinese probably have (or will have) the army to conquer Taiwan, but what would they again? A bunch of rocks/ruins and millions of people left with nothing. On their side, they would have huge human and economic losses. Not much of a victory for the chinese people.

Ivo

topt
Posts: 60
Joined: Fri Jul 19, 2019 5:13 pm
Location: Slovenija

by topt

Lina wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:07 pm
Sock3t wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 3:27 pm
If you tell your kid lots of times not to do something or they will be reprimanded or lose some sort of toy...It works. Up until you actually have to do it. Then you've lost all power because you've done the thing you threatened and you can't go back, typically. Say it's something terrible like throw away a toy. Once the toy is gone, there's no going back at all.

Russia did this with Ukraine and Crimea/Georgia. They threatened a ton but when it came to follow through of doing the thing, they're failing terribly. They drank their own Koolaide and thought they could steamroll Ukraine.

China isn't stupid - they know about TSMC and where the world's chip production comes from; those foundries in Taiwan are critical to all countries, not just the US. NATO would immediately be involved if China tried to take control because of this. China just threatens and postures a ton just like Russia used to.
Except when you carry thought with your threat and throw away a toy they know that you'll do it. And sure, you can't throw away the same toy twice but you can throw away some other toy that you can use as a threat next. You lose all leverage by not carrying out your threats. Then everyone knows your threats are not worth anything. Don't make promises you're not prepared to keep, and also don't make threats you're not willing to see through.

Russia has been threatening with Crimea, Georgia, and Ukraine. And they've followed through with their threats. There's no reason to suspect that Russia won't attack someone if they've been posturing in that way for years. Russia basically steamrolled Crimea. And the punishment for them was what exactly from the west? A couple mostly powerless sanctions yet Europe kept buying Russian energy and in fact didn't still see anything wrong with depending on them for energy. Nord Stream 2 pipeline building started AFTER Russia had already annexed Crimea and while they were openly backing separatists in Eastern Ukraine. Europe threatened Russia that they shouldn't bully Ukraine or else and once they annex Crimea what's the response from Europe? Few useless sanctions and more dependance on Russian energy. That was basically an all out win for Russia. Based on past examples Russia didn't expect the response from Europe and US to be this vast to their attempt to annex all of Ukraine. And without Europe and US helping Ukraine this much this war would be going in a lot different way than it currently is. It'd also be going a lot different if the funds to upkeep and modernize the Russian army actually went for what they were meant for and not to yachts and villas of the generals. And unless Russia is fully stopped here, punished for it properly, and Ukraine gets back at least their 2014 borders, preferably even Crimea then Russia will try again in a decade. If they're allowed to annex Ukraine and get away with minor bruises they'll lick their wounds for a while and pick the next country. The goal is to restore the Empire.

China is probably better off posturing and bullying without actually invading. They can buy the politicians and use propaganda as tools to make Taiwan more friendly towards them. And potentially in future at some point annex them politically. If they wanted to they could easily steamroll Taiwan today unless there was an instant and massive help from someone else (US). But the global response for that invasion would probably hurt China more than they'd gain from the annexation.
what a bunch of nato propganda crap; who stopped ameros taking Kosovo from Serbia and building a military base there ?Who is going to punish ameros for all the crap they have done in the last 20 years ? Now I have to read propganda even on cycling forums, fck this....
Last edited by topt on Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:11 am, edited 3 times in total.

Lina
Posts: 1060
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:09 pm

by Lina

ivonenand wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 10:30 pm
Still, I do agree with the points above about China not being stupid. If the Taiwaneese resist the occupation/invasion, which I'm pretty sure they will, Taiwan will be left in ruins, including all of it's factories. I doubt that their artilery/rockets are precise enough to hit everything, except TSMC. The chinese probably have (or will have) the army to conquer Taiwan, but what would they again? A bunch of rocks/ruins and millions of people left with nothing. On their side, they would have huge human and economic losses. Not much of a victory for the chinese people.
Exactly what I meant. They could definitely do it, but the cost, both in destroyed infrastructure and global response, would not be worth the reward. If China were to conquer Taiwan and the TSMC factories were to survive in some miraculous way and they'd get people to work there it'd still be a bad deal. Because both the US and Europe would be doing something to kickstart/revive their own chip manufacturing. China has also shown in Africa that they are capable to "colonizing" areas with other means than conquest. So they're aware that it's possible to gain influence in ways other than raw force.
topt wrote:
Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:06 am
what a bunch of nato propganda crap; who stopped ameros taking Kosovo from Serbia and building a military base there ?Who is going to punish ameros for all the crap they have done in the last 20 years ? Now I have to read propganda even on cycling forums, fck this....
Got any more of that whataboutism to offer?

MagicShite
Posts: 425
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2016 3:33 pm

by MagicShite

lol why do we have "politics" in the middle of the Road Bicycle Forums?

Seriously guys, keep your power levels in check. You can post these kind of bullshit on forums like Reddit/4chan etc.

topt
Posts: 60
Joined: Fri Jul 19, 2019 5:13 pm
Location: Slovenija

by topt

Lina wrote:
Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:35 am
ivonenand wrote:
Thu Jan 05, 2023 10:30 pm
Still, I do agree with the points above about China not being stupid. If the Taiwaneese resist the occupation/invasion, which I'm pretty sure they will, Taiwan will be left in ruins, including all of it's factories. I doubt that their artilery/rockets are precise enough to hit everything, except TSMC. The chinese probably have (or will have) the army to conquer Taiwan, but what would they again? A bunch of rocks/ruins and millions of people left with nothing. On their side, they would have huge human and economic losses. Not much of a victory for the chinese people.
Exactly what I meant. They could definitely do it, but the cost, both in destroyed infrastructure and global response, would not be worth the reward. If China were to conquer Taiwan and the TSMC factories were to survive in some miraculous way and they'd get people to work there it'd still be a bad deal. Because both the US and Europe would be doing something to kickstart/revive their own chip manufacturing. China has also shown in Africa that they are capable to "colonizing" areas with other means than conquest. So they're aware that it's possible to gain influence in ways other than raw force.
topt wrote:
Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:06 am
what a bunch of nato propganda crap; who stopped ameros taking Kosovo from Serbia and building a military base there ?Who is going to punish ameros for all the crap they have done in the last 20 years ? Now I have to read propganda even on cycling forums, fck this....
Got any more of that whataboutism to offer?
"whataboutism", the dumbest words ever invented to forget angolsaxon crimes; the world outside of NATO just calls it hypocrisy; Ted Bundy wants to punish other murderers

by Weenie


Visit starbike.com Online Retailer for HighEnd cycling components
Great Prices ✓    Broad Selection ✓    Worldwide Delivery ✓

www.starbike.com



topt
Posts: 60
Joined: Fri Jul 19, 2019 5:13 pm
Location: Slovenija

by topt

MagicShite wrote:
Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:48 am
lol why do we have "politics" in the middle of the Road Bicycle Forums?

Seriously guys, keep your power levels in check. You can post these kind of bullshit on forums like Reddit/4chan etc.
Agree; I am sorry for my part

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