Is anyone completely done with these absurd prices?

[eucalyptus]

They are predicting home prices and used car prices will plummet with the coming recession. I wonder if that will hold true for the bike/bike parts market.

For all the companies that ramped up production, maybe they will be left with excess inventory when demand for $7000 framesets evaporate.

If recession hits harder than it does at the moment I don´t think the typical $7000 frameset buyer would even care, its not like it is a big investment for them
With that said of course recession affects everyone, in their case its more a matter of choice what color to choose on the next Porsche

[TobinHatesYou]

The big winners won’t be individuals trying to buy used bikes, but outfits like The Pro’s Closet with enough spending power to exploit individuals or shops who suddenly can’t make ends meet. TPC acts like a liquidator.

[tarmackev]

I remember woking in a shop 6 or 7 years ago, it seemed everything was discounted in other shops and we followed suit. We did a Scott Foil build with Ultegra Di2 and light wheels at £1999. It was 63% off RRP.
I remember people saying things like "I'll waith until next year and buy a current bike when it's discounted by 63%". They never understood that it was only discounted so heavily as they were Di2 only frames and tehy'd produced so many and had left over stock.
In 2014 I bought a Supersix Evo Hi-Mod from Pauls cycles in the UK and im sure that was 67% off RRP or something ridiculous.Great bike but you could barely fit 23mm tyres, they came specced with 21mm tubs.
I wonder what the market will look like in a year or two.

[guyc]

My guess is that some smaller firms will exit the market. COVID followed by the recessions and cost of living issues hitting a lot of countries may well be too much. Same will go for some bike shops and retailers.

Obvs not just cycling. The upgrade cycle in this sport is insane though.

[spartacus]

They are predicting home prices and used car prices will plummet with the coming recession. I wonder if that will hold true for the bike/bike parts market.

For all the companies that ramped up production, maybe they will be left with excess inventory when demand for $7000 framesets evaporate.

The problem is production hasn't ramped up to meet demand yet so many things are still scarce like chips.

[AJS914]

I've seen some really good sales recently on the Bianchi Specialissima. I was wondering if they over-produced or were coming out with a new model. I could have gotten black in my size. If they had celeste in stock I may have pulled the trigger.

I haven't seen any other amazing sales yet.

If recession hits harder than it does at the moment I don´t think the typical $7000 frameset buyer would even care

I'm not sure that every $7000 frameset buyer is a person making big money. In my bike club, I see regular people with regular incomes buying a new top end bike every 8-10 years. I think most buyers will pull back on these purchases when their home equity or 401k balance falls by 20-30-50%.

[theStig]

I've never spent $7000 on a frameset.. my approach has pretty much been to just mind my own damn business until someone presents a deal on a used 1 to 3 generation old frameset that I just can't pass up. Then it sits on my wall until I can piece together used 1-2 generation old DA or Red bits and 5-6 year old ex ironman deep section wheelsets with the occassional chinese part with a coupon code that I also couldn't pass up. I also don't own anything with disc brakes currently. I've been wanting a new TMR01 with DA12 and some deep princeton/zipp/enve wheels (current gen for once!) but I can't justify dropping $12-14k USD when it won't make me even marginally faster.

I have to admit, WW forums has been a big influence on my formative years as a cyclist. You don't have to be rich to sit there weighing parts and logging weights on a spreadsheet all day. It's crazy how a little bit of know-how, one can build a sub 6kg ride with an older frameset and some tuned 10spd red with chinese wheels for not a lot of money at all!

Which is why my stable is some neverending rotating mess of frankenstein bikes that are always in some state of disassembly. But I digress.

I had scored some good deals in the first fiew months of the pandemic when people for some reason just starting dumping stuff, presumably to pay rent.

[OnTheRivet]

When I first started riding/racing mtb's in 1992 ( I'm old) i was poor so had to do my own work and research heavily to get the most bang for the buck. Fast forward to now and I can afford any bike I want but none of my bikes is over $6500 and they are super nice. Smart parts pick and not getting caught up a labels makes it possible.

[pesos]

Living in Japan while paid in USD is paying off at the moment... Shimano gear hasn't really price adjusted for the crazy yen/dollar exchange (back up to almost 137 now) so I'm saving over $2,400 on a mixed 8170/9270 groupset/wheels vs. buying in the states... but the fact that there is that much to discount in the first place is kind of insane.......

[misteryellow]

Thank you for your responses guys! It seems I am not the only one that feels taken advantage of by companies.

[tymon_tm]

I'm not sure that every $7000 frameset buyer is a person making big money. In my bike club, I see regular people with regular incomes buying a new top end bike every 8-10 years. I think most buyers will pull back on these purchases when their home equity or 401k balance falls by 20-30-50%.

what's the current median in the US? because in Poland, where I live, it's ~750$. yup, a staggering amount of money given we're apparently the 21st economy in the world

so, do you think someone who makes 750$ a month can afford a bike that costs more than his annual income?

7k frames, 20k bikes - these are luxurious goods. but it's not the issue here - it's the price tags on entry level and mid-range equipment. most of cyclists can and do live without top groupsets, newest frames etc. the problem begins when stretching these absurdly high prices of top equipment means you also gotta pay more for that 'blue collar' aluminum bike on 105. because it's been equipped with electronic shifting, disc brakes, frame itself is 15% more aero, so instead of the usual ~1-1,5k on a price tag, it's suddenly 2-2,5k.

[blaugrana]

7k frames, 20k bikes - these are luxurious goods. but it's not the issue here - it's the price tags on entry level and mid-range equipment. most of cyclists can and do live without top groupsets, newest frames etc. the problem begins when stretching these absurdly high prices of top equipment means you also gotta pay more for that 'blue collar' aluminum bike on 105. because it's been equipped with electronic shifting, disc brakes, frame itself is 15% more aero, so instead of the usual ~1-1,5k on a price tag, it's suddenly 2-2,5k.

This is the worst part: the entry level 105 alu bike has gotten a lot more expensive over the last decade, but not really any faster. And on top of all the other reasons, at this price range disc brakes add a lot of weight and expense, only to offer a very marginal braking improvement because the rims aren't carbon anyway.
For all of us that already have one or several bikes, it's relatively easy to simply keep riding what we have until it falls apart, but it's worrying what this means to people wanting to get into the sport. The major brands might be happy milking the middle aged american/northern european demographic as much as they can, but what we need for the sport to grow are accessible bikes that are good enough for racing and that teenagers and children (or their families) of all backgrounds can afford. And at that, I think the industry is failing miserably.

[GaBa]

Everything in the name of profit. Capitalism huray

[montana05]

The thing is that at least where I live (dutchman in italy) lots of cyclists are very arrogant when riding €10.000 bikes. Looking down on people who can not or choose not to pay thousands of euros happens a lot in my experience: if your kit is also not the latest and greatest people will look at you like you're too poor to ride with them...
I had a race in july where some guy asked me why I am using a cross bike with a 1x setup on the road....he told me to check out the possibility for a loan for a 'real bike'.....
I told him I have a 1 year old Audi rs6 parked at the parking lot and that I was happy to give him a ride home.
The sky high prices make people who can and who are willing to pay turn into an elite bunch of pricks.......

[HammerTime2]

The thing is that at least where I live (dutchman in italy) lots of cyclists are very arrogant when riding €10.000 bikes. Looking down on people who can not or choose not to pay thousands of euros happens a lot in my experience: if your kit is also not the latest and greatest people will look at you like you're too poor to ride with them...

Snobbery is not a new phenomenon. In 2008 I wrote in Guess what the Chicken is doing this November...

Riding my good condition 1983 vintage Trek 760 (Reynolds 531 butted tubes, forks, and stays, Suntour Superbe Pro Components, GEL 280 (after-market) wheels) solo through the Stanford campus in 1984 at the conclusion of my training ride, I came along side a well-dressed couple on the usual Italian Columbus frames (Ciocc?) with probably Campy Super Record Reduced components, which was de rigeur back then for a race bike, and the young woman said "Oh Trek, Niiiiice Bike" (an exaggerated sarcastic sounding wavering long "i" in nice"). I think she was being sarcastic. Then I challenged them to climb Page Mill, waited for the steep part, and totally wasted them.*

* O.k., the story in the last sentence did not occur. I simply said thanks and rode on.

BTW, their top of the line bikes, in inflation adjusted terms (based on CPI) would today cost about USD 4200, while mine would be about USD2800.